Flatiron Hot! Pundit: Obama Fiscal Cliff Deal a Loss for Liberals, a Rout for G.O.P.
- Eric Shapiro
- On January 3, 2013
A decisive election victory. An increased Democratic majority in one house of Congress and substantial gains in another. An automatic expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Leading up to the election, many expected Barack Obama to be a one-term president. But a mere few months later, he could hardly ask for better conditions to start out his second term (adjusted for the recession, of course).
And yet, in the latest example of a frustrating trend, the fiscal cliff saw the Obama administration offering more unnecessary concessions, expending precious political capital on compromising with a party fundamentally opposed to compromise. The last-minute “deal” ironed out by Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and passed by both houses of Congress is a surrender to the conservative status quo that will only embolden Republicans to continue their irresponsible strategy of intransigent brinkmanship.
While the Flatiron Pundit will spend most of this editorial criticizing the President, let it be clear that the Republican Party, hijacked by the Tea Party phalanx in the House of Representatives, bears most of the responsibility for this disaster. Forcing the President into a game of chicken over the basic resources government requires to sustain the economic recovery will go down as one of the most shameful and irresponsible displays in U.S. history. For the G.O.P., “starving the beast” has clearly taken precedence over serving the people.
Obama proved on the campaign trail that he could make a persuasive case for himself and his pragmatic, center-left policies. But on a nuts and bolts level, he has often been an ineffective political player, repeatedly being outmaneuvered by the likes of McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH). Obama’s most recent concession is only the latest in a long series of ill-advised concessions. The fiscal cliff deal calls to mind the early days of the health care fight (which eventually culminated in the impressive but flawed Affordable Care Act), when he jettisoned a public option almost immediately. Or the President’s wipeout in the 2010 debt limit imbroglio.
Obama’s latest capitulation, while likely stemming from the best of intentions, failed to capitalize on a rare opportunity to restore the Clinton-era tax rates, a major stated goal of his campaign. Furthermore, it sends a message to House Republicans that the new, fierier Obama of the campaign can still be rolled, that his lines in the sand are still arbitrary and that he can always be squeezed for a little more in high-pressure situations. Obama needed to establish a clear precedent early on that he was not willing to bend beyond a certain point, but he has done the opposite. The G.O.P., smelling weakness, will now likely be emboldened in its obstructionism.
One might argue that the economic consequences of going over the fiscal cliff demanded that the President fold. But examined closely, the benefits of holding out for a better deal outweighed the costs of settling for a bad one. To begin with, the direst effects of the sequestration (a combination of tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect at the start of the new year) could have been canceled before they took effect.
From a strategic point of view, Republicans would have been caught in the bind of holding popular government programs hostage to preserve tax breaks for the rich. Now, with a new round of debt ceiling talks approaching in two months, the G.O.P. will have considerably greater leverage, armed with the false claim that they compromised when in fact they got a sweetheart deal.
To be sure, Obama can and should still fight for increased revenue and a more progressive tax code moving forward. But if the G.O.P. was unwilling to give an inch with the election’s winds at the President’s back, it seems unlikely that they will suddenly agree to compromise when they hold more political leverage. The U.S. has already gone past the debt limit, according to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, and unless Obama and the Democrats agree to deep cuts in domestic programs like Medicaid and Social Security, the G.O.P. could throw a wrench into raising the debt ceiling.
The fiscal cliff showdown afforded Obama a chance to simultaneously win a major policy victory (the expiration of the Bush tax cuts) and send a strong message that the Republicans’ cynical obstructionism will not fly in his second term. Over the next four years, Democrats, not least the President himself, may come to regret passing it up.
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January 4, 2013
JulienRepublicans wanted an extension of the Bush tax cuts for all income levels. Democrats wanted an extension for below 250,000. Some (including Pelosi) wanted below 1 million. They settled on 400,000. Dems also got an extension of unemployment benefits. How is that a loss for liberals?
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